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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+4.71vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.16+4.65vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+0.66vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-0.07vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.45+0.91vs Predicted
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6Hampton University2.26+0.54vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech-1.79+8.15vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.85-0.54vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook0.90+1.15vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.30-6.17vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College0.25+0.76vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.95-4.67vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.34+0.07vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University0.28-2.31vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech-1.79+0.15vs Predicted
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16William and Mary-0.10-3.35vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.80-6.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.71St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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6.65Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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3.66Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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3.93St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.2%1st Place
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5.91Old Dominion University2.450.1%1st Place
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6.54Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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15.15Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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7.46George Washington University1.850.0%1st Place
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10.15SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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3.83U. S. Naval Academy3.300.2%1st Place
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11.76Ocean County College0.250.0%1st Place
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7.33University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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13.07University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.340.0%1st Place
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11.69Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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15.15Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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12.65William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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10.51Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greer Wattson | 7.5% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Kelleher | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 21.0% | 17.6% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 18.2% | 16.9% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Mergenthaler | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 6.0% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 10.9% | 71.4% | 0.0% |
| John Mastrandrea | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 18.9% | 16.4% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Nunn | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 15.8% | 19.3% | 14.6% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| William Gallagher | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffery Mayher | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 18.6% | 26.2% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 10.9% | 71.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 20.0% | 23.3% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.