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📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Nikki Medley 21.2% 20.1% 14.8% 12.3% 10.2% 7.2% 6.8% 3.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samuel Armington 16.5% 15.9% 13.7% 13.2% 11.8% 11.5% 6.1% 5.6% 3.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conner Killham 6.5% 7.3% 8.6% 8.7% 6.9% 9.2% 11.1% 13.4% 10.4% 9.3% 6.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Max Thompson 9.4% 11.3% 13.1% 11.7% 11.6% 12.9% 9.2% 9.0% 5.3% 3.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Samuel Normington 11.8% 13.7% 15.4% 14.2% 11.8% 9.1% 9.3% 6.0% 5.3% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elizabeth O'Connor 5.0% 3.9% 5.6% 6.1% 7.9% 8.6% 10.8% 10.8% 12.5% 11.7% 9.7% 6.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Stephan VerHulst 11.0% 10.3% 10.0% 10.9% 12.7% 9.4% 8.8% 10.5% 8.1% 5.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Travis Tucker 6.9% 5.3% 8.6% 7.0% 8.5% 9.9% 10.9% 9.8% 10.0% 10.3% 8.7% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Alex Jones 3.0% 3.1% 2.4% 2.8% 4.1% 5.4% 5.9% 7.5% 11.3% 17.2% 17.3% 14.8% 4.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Mackey Leventis 4.6% 5.2% 3.9% 7.5% 7.9% 8.2% 10.6% 10.0% 13.1% 13.0% 9.5% 5.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Rafael Melendez 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 4.3% 5.5% 5.9% 8.1% 9.8% 13.0% 19.8% 19.3% 4.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Chad Murray 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 2.5% 1.9% 2.2% 3.5% 5.0% 6.7% 9.6% 17.2% 33.0% 12.7% 2.2% 0.0%
Rafael Melendez 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 4.3% 5.5% 5.9% 8.1% 9.8% 13.0% 19.8% 19.3% 4.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Erica Trotter 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3% 1.6% 3.0% 8.3% 44.2% 38.6% 0.0%
Edward Martin 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 2.1% 5.2% 30.9% 58.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.