Race 1A

luce

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Tyler Brown 17.9% 15.3% 13.6% 14.3% 11.1% 9.3% 7.1% 6.2% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Elizabeth Frost 9.7% 10.0% 11.2% 9.6% 9.8% 11.7% 9.6% 10.3% 8.3% 5.5% 3.0% 0.8% 0.4%
James Lilyquist 13.5% 12.1% 10.9% 14.2% 10.3% 10.3% 9.2% 7.9% 6.0% 3.5% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Jasper Waldman 8.8% 8.9% 10.7% 9.5% 10.6% 9.8% 10.8% 9.8% 8.9% 6.6% 3.8% 1.5% 0.3%
Julian van den Driessche 9.1% 10.8% 10.4% 9.8% 10.7% 9.8% 11.2% 10.2% 7.7% 5.9% 2.8% 1.4% 0.2%
Ethan Deutsch 1.1% 1.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.7% 2.9% 3.9% 4.7% 8.0% 13.2% 18.8% 24.6% 14.4%
Barrett Lhamon 16.2% 14.6% 13.1% 12.4% 11.5% 10.8% 8.1% 5.9% 4.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Joseph Bonacci 7.1% 7.8% 7.2% 7.5% 10.0% 9.6% 11.3% 10.5% 11.9% 8.8% 5.9% 1.9% 0.3%
Cole Bender 9.3% 11.5% 10.8% 9.6% 11.3% 10.5% 10.7% 10.1% 7.2% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.1%
Lucas Randle 2.5% 2.8% 3.5% 3.6% 3.1% 5.1% 6.7% 8.2% 11.1% 14.5% 17.4% 15.7% 5.9%
Maren Behnke 2.6% 2.9% 3.5% 4.2% 5.5% 6.6% 6.7% 8.1% 11.7% 15.2% 16.2% 12.4% 4.4%
Rose von Eckartsberg 1.4% 1.4% 2.1% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 3.5% 5.9% 8.5% 13.6% 16.8% 22.7% 17.1%
Gus Hankinson 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 2.5% 2.6% 5.0% 9.6% 17.4% 57.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.