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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University1.71+1.56vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University1.89+0.33vs Predicted
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3University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.48+3.24vs Predicted
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4Virginia Tech1.15-0.66vs Predicted
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5William and Mary0.37-0.47vs Predicted
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6Catholic University of America-0.34-0.12vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech1.15-3.66vs Predicted
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8American University-0.92-1.01vs Predicted
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9William and Mary-0.81-2.29vs Predicted
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10St. John's College-1.11-2.69vs Predicted
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11Penn State University-2.41-1.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.56Christopher Newport University1.710.3%1st Place
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2.33Christopher Newport University1.890.3%1st Place
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6.24University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.480.0%1st Place
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3.34Virginia Tech1.150.1%1st Place
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4.53William and Mary0.370.1%1st Place
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5.88Catholic University of America-0.340.0%1st Place
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3.34Virginia Tech1.150.1%1st Place
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6.99American University-0.920.0%1st Place
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6.71William and Mary-0.810.0%1st Place
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7.31St. John's College-1.110.0%1st Place
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9.11Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Attardi | 29.2% | 27.8% | 19.5% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 34.6% | 26.9% | 20.4% | 10.4% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Thompson | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 19.8% | 17.0% | 11.0% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Brady | 14.1% | 19.5% | 23.7% | 19.0% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Chapin | 8.6% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 17.3% | 20.4% | 14.1% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Grace Wagner | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 18.2% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Brady | 14.1% | 19.5% | 23.7% | 19.0% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Sellers | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 17.2% | 19.5% | 19.8% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Nina Willms | 2.0% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 16.0% | 17.8% | 18.2% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| John Monday | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 17.7% | 26.0% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 65.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.