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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University1.71+1.58vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech1.15+1.36vs Predicted
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3University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.48+3.24vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University1.89-1.70vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech1.15-1.64vs Predicted
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6William and Mary-0.81+0.70vs Predicted
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7Catholic University of America-0.34-1.14vs Predicted
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8William and Mary0.37-3.36vs Predicted
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9American University-0.92-2.09vs Predicted
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10St. John's College-1.11-2.67vs Predicted
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11Penn State University-2.41-1.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.58Christopher Newport University1.710.3%1st Place
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3.36Virginia Tech1.150.2%1st Place
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6.24University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.480.0%1st Place
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2.3Christopher Newport University1.890.3%1st Place
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3.36Virginia Tech1.150.2%1st Place
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6.7William and Mary-0.810.0%1st Place
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5.86Catholic University of America-0.340.0%1st Place
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4.64William and Mary0.370.1%1st Place
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6.91American University-0.920.0%1st Place
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7.33St. John's College-1.110.0%1st Place
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9.08Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Attardi | 29.3% | 26.9% | 19.3% | 12.8% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Brady | 15.1% | 19.7% | 20.4% | 20.5% | 13.1% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Thompson | 3.2% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 18.0% | 18.1% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 34.6% | 27.5% | 21.6% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Brady | 15.1% | 19.7% | 20.4% | 20.5% | 13.1% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nina Willms | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 16.4% | 19.1% | 17.0% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Grace Wagner | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 17.8% | 16.1% | 14.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Chapin | 6.1% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 14.7% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Will Sellers | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 15.9% | 17.0% | 20.8% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| John Monday | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 17.0% | 26.1% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 14.1% | 64.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.