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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University1.89+1.30vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University1.71+0.54vs Predicted
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3University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.48+3.11vs Predicted
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4Virginia Tech1.15-0.69vs Predicted
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5William and Mary0.37-0.52vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech1.15-2.69vs Predicted
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7American University-0.92-0.23vs Predicted
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8Catholic University of America-0.34-2.23vs Predicted
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9William and Mary-0.81-2.45vs Predicted
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10St. John's College-1.81-1.78vs Predicted
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11Penn State University-2.41-2.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.3Christopher Newport University1.890.4%1st Place
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2.54Christopher Newport University1.710.3%1st Place
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6.11University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.480.0%1st Place
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3.31Virginia Tech1.150.1%1st Place
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4.48William and Mary0.370.1%1st Place
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3.31Virginia Tech1.150.1%1st Place
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6.77American University-0.920.0%1st Place
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5.77Catholic University of America-0.340.0%1st Place
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6.55William and Mary-0.810.0%1st Place
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8.22St. John's College-1.810.0%1st Place
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8.96Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Charney | 36.9% | 26.9% | 18.2% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Attardi | 28.0% | 27.4% | 21.6% | 12.8% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Thompson | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 16.9% | 20.7% | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Brady | 14.4% | 20.2% | 23.2% | 19.4% | 13.3% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Chapin | 8.3% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 19.5% | 18.8% | 15.2% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Brady | 14.4% | 20.2% | 23.2% | 19.4% | 13.3% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Sellers | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 17.0% | 19.7% | 18.7% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| Grace Wagner | 3.0% | 3.7% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 15.5% | 20.0% | 17.5% | 13.0% | 6.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Nina Willms | 2.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 14.4% | 17.4% | 19.6% | 13.9% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack Cooper | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 32.0% | 27.4% | 0.0% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 17.6% | 56.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.