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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.48+5.02vs Predicted
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2William and Mary0.37+2.59vs Predicted
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3Virginia Tech1.15+0.32vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University1.71-1.52vs Predicted
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5Catholic University of America-0.34+0.76vs Predicted
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6St. John's College-1.81+2.16vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.89-4.71vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech1.15-4.68vs Predicted
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9American University-0.92-2.22vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.81-3.36vs Predicted
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11Penn State University-2.41-2.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.02University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.480.0%1st Place
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4.59William and Mary0.370.1%1st Place
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3.32Virginia Tech1.150.2%1st Place
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2.48Christopher Newport University1.710.3%1st Place
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5.76Catholic University of America-0.340.0%1st Place
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8.16St. John's College-1.810.0%1st Place
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2.29Christopher Newport University1.890.3%1st Place
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3.32Virginia Tech1.150.2%1st Place
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6.78American University-0.920.0%1st Place
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6.64William and Mary-0.810.0%1st Place
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8.97Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Thompson | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 16.1% | 17.1% | 16.7% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Chapin | 7.4% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 18.9% | 18.5% | 15.7% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Brady | 16.3% | 17.3% | 23.6% | 18.7% | 13.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Attardi | 29.0% | 28.3% | 21.0% | 12.7% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Wagner | 4.0% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 15.8% | 16.2% | 18.6% | 13.0% | 7.2% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Cooper | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 14.3% | 30.0% | 28.1% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 34.3% | 29.3% | 18.9% | 11.0% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Brady | 16.3% | 17.3% | 23.6% | 18.7% | 13.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Sellers | 1.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 19.1% | 19.6% | 15.7% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Nina Willms | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 16.4% | 17.7% | 19.4% | 15.9% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 10.4% | 19.3% | 56.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.