Race 3B

colony-cup

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

81.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Bryan Bay 44.8% 29.2% 16.0% 7.1% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samara Leith 28.0% 30.5% 24.0% 11.0% 4.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Laura Kilgore 9.5% 12.1% 17.0% 26.2% 20.5% 9.8% 3.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryan Bay 44.8% 29.2% 16.0% 7.1% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Emma Purinton 9.7% 18.5% 25.9% 23.3% 13.7% 6.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen Anderson 1.9% 1.3% 2.6% 5.3% 10.2% 11.6% 17.1% 20.0% 18.2% 11.8% 0.0%
Danyte Reisinger 2.8% 3.9% 5.5% 8.6% 16.1% 22.3% 19.0% 12.9% 6.7% 2.2% 0.0%
Dillon Coppersmith 1.5% 2.1% 4.0% 8.6% 17.4% 21.1% 19.8% 14.4% 8.4% 2.7% 0.0%
Charles Jr. Blair 0.4% 1.5% 2.2% 3.8% 6.5% 12.4% 14.6% 19.7% 21.5% 17.4% 0.0%
Samuel Mortin 0.8% 0.2% 0.9% 1.8% 3.2% 4.5% 8.8% 12.3% 21.1% 46.4% 0.0%
Charles Carpenter 0.6% 0.7% 1.9% 4.3% 5.4% 10.2% 14.5% 18.9% 24.0% 19.5% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.