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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+5.68vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+6.42vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.77+5.19vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+4.56vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.84+2.62vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+3.82vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+1.63vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.50+0.96vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.80+3.20vs Predicted
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10George Washington University3.49-0.74vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.29-0.83vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University2.21+2.91vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.49-3.40vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.72-5.83vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.60-6.26vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.84-0.12vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College3.19-6.57vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College2.69-5.08vs Predicted
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19University of Virginia1.63-2.40vs Predicted
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20Jacksonville University2.38-5.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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8.42U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.19Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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7.62College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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9.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.0%1st Place
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8.63St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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8.96Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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12.2University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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9.26George Washington University3.490.0%1st Place
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10.17Georgetown University3.290.1%1st Place
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14.91Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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9.6Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.17Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.74Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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15.88University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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10.43Dartmouth College3.190.0%1st Place
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12.92SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
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16.6University of Virginia1.630.0%1st Place
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14.25Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Snow | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Jack Cusick | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Bradley Adam | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 3.4% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| AJ Reiter | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Austin Powers | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 13.7% | 16.7% | 15.0% |
| John Rolander | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Joseph Kiss | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Mason Wolters | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 15.8% | 27.3% |
| Duncan Williford | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Kyle Comerford | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 5.7% |
| Alexander Singh | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 19.5% | 32.7% |
| Daniel Lawless | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 10.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.