← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+6.86vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy2.88+7.59vs Predicted
-
3Yale University3.13+5.71vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College2.14+8.92vs Predicted
-
5Tufts University3.47+2.02vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+3.62vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+3.22vs Predicted
-
8Dartmouth College2.96+1.03vs Predicted
-
9George Washington University3.41-1.82vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University3.23-1.88vs Predicted
-
11Harvard University2.42+0.73vs Predicted
-
12College of Charleston3.09-3.05vs Predicted
-
13Georgetown University3.06-3.80vs Predicted
-
14Old Dominion University2.89-4.46vs Predicted
-
15University of Pennsylvania1.95-1.43vs Predicted
-
16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-8.68vs Predicted
-
17Christopher Newport University1.35-1.23vs Predicted
-
18University of Virginia2.12-4.86vs Predicted
-
19Jacksonville University2.15-6.23vs Predicted
-
20University of Michigan0.68-2.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.86St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
-
9.59U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
-
8.71Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
-
12.92SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
-
7.02Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
-
9.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
-
10.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
-
9.03Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
-
7.18George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
-
8.12Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
-
11.73Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
-
8.95College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
-
9.2Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
-
9.54Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
-
13.57University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
-
7.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
-
15.77Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
-
13.14University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
-
12.77Jacksonville University2.150.0%1st Place
-
17.73University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Maxwell Brill | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| John Lawless | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 6.0% |
| Scott Barbano | 8.1% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Max Neubelt | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Jack McGraw | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Conner Harding | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Jackson Wagner | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| Paris Henken | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Roger Dorr | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| William Gallagher | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 15.1% | 6.1% |
| Hector Guzman | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Anna Patterson | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 19.7% | 20.8% |
| Colin Suvak | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 5.8% |
| Peter Steo | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 3.4% |
| Will Neubauer | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 10.2% | 14.5% | 51.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.