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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.13+7.50vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.06+6.90vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.23+5.21vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+3.45vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.47+2.04vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+1.97vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.42+5.10vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.89+1.36vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.88+0.53vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-0.07vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.14+1.97vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.82+2.42vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.96-3.36vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.88+0.01vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia2.12-2.05vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-6.47vs Predicted
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17George Washington University3.41-9.79vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.95-4.12vs Predicted
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19College of Charleston3.09-10.36vs Predicted
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20University of Michigan0.68-2.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.5Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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8.9Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.21Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.04Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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7.97St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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12.1Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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9.36Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.53U. S. Naval Academy2.880.0%1st Place
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9.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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12.97SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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14.42Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
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9.64Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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14.01Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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12.95University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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9.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.1%1st Place
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7.21George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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13.88University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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8.64College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
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17.76University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Hernandez | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Conner Harding | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Scott Barbano | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 3.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Maxwell Brill | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Max Neubelt | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| John Lawless | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 4.2% |
| Anders Hudson | 1.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 11.0% |
| Jack McGraw | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 10.5% |
| Colin Suvak | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 4.5% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Kai Friesecke | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| William Gallagher | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 8.9% |
| Paris Henken | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Will Neubauer | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 54.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.