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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.13+7.54vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.41+5.38vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.89+6.80vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.14+9.03vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+2.89vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.47+1.21vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+2.96vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.88+1.44vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.42+2.63vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.23-1.84vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.09-2.13vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia2.12+1.32vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-2.67vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.95-0.19vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-7.55vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College2.96-6.72vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.82-2.80vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University2.15-4.94vs Predicted
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19Georgetown University3.06-10.17vs Predicted
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20University of Michigan0.68-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.54Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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7.38George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.8Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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13.03SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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7.89St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.21Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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9.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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9.44U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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11.63Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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8.16Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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8.87College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
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13.32University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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10.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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13.81University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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7.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.28Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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14.2Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
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13.06Jacksonville University2.150.0%1st Place
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8.83Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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17.81University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Hernandez | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Kai Friesecke | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| John Lawless | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 6.6% |
| Liam McCarthy | 6.4% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barbano | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Maxwell Brill | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 1.7% |
| Conner Harding | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Paris Henken | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Colin Suvak | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 5.8% |
| Max Neubelt | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| William Gallagher | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 8.7% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack McGraw | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Anders Hudson | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 15.9% | 10.6% |
| Peter Steo | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 6.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Will Neubauer | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 12.3% | 55.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.