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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.23+7.16vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.41+5.28vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.96+6.53vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+5.64vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+2.89vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+4.05vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.95+7.16vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.13+0.41vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.14+3.93vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.09-1.21vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.06-2.03vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.88-2.05vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-5.25vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.89-4.40vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University2.15-2.12vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.82-1.75vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.42-5.36vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia2.12-4.72vs Predicted
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19Tufts University3.47-11.98vs Predicted
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20University of Michigan0.68-2.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.16Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.28George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.53Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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9.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.1%1st Place
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7.89St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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10.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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14.16University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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8.41Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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12.93SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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8.79College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
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8.97Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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9.95U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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7.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.6Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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12.88Jacksonville University2.150.0%1st Place
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14.25Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
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11.64Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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13.28University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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7.02Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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17.84University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner Harding | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Kai Friesecke | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack McGraw | 6.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| William Gallagher | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 14.6% | 9.1% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| John Lawless | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 4.5% |
| Paris Henken | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Roger Dorr | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Maxwell Brill | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Hector Guzman | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Peter Steo | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 4.9% |
| Anders Hudson | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 15.5% | 10.8% |
| Jackson Wagner | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.2% |
| Colin Suvak | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 6.6% |
| Scott Barbano | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Will Neubauer | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 12.6% | 55.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.