← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+6.19vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University3.47+4.96vs Predicted
-
3Roger Williams University3.23+5.02vs Predicted
-
4George Washington University3.41+3.13vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy2.88+4.61vs Predicted
-
6Harvard University2.42+5.25vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.71vs Predicted
-
8College of Charleston3.09+0.80vs Predicted
-
9Jacksonville University1.88+4.33vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-0.43vs Predicted
-
11Dartmouth College2.96-1.91vs Predicted
-
12Old Dominion University2.89-2.26vs Predicted
-
13Yale University3.13-4.88vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Maritime College2.14-1.35vs Predicted
-
15Georgetown University3.06-6.43vs Predicted
-
16Christopher Newport University1.82-2.33vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-7.72vs Predicted
-
18University of Michigan0.68-0.92vs Predicted
-
19University of Virginia2.12-6.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
-
6.96Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
-
8.02Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
-
7.13George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
-
9.61U. S. Naval Academy2.880.0%1st Place
-
11.25Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
-
7.71St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
-
8.8College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
-
13.33Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
-
9.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.1%1st Place
-
9.09Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
-
9.74Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
-
8.12Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
-
12.65SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
-
8.57Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
-
13.67Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
-
9.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.1%1st Place
-
17.08University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
-
12.23University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Scott Barbano | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Conner Harding | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Maxwell Brill | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Jackson Wagner | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 4.1% |
| Liam McCarthy | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Paris Henken | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 16.5% | 11.3% |
| Max Neubelt | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Jack McGraw | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| John Lawless | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 5.9% |
| Roger Dorr | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Anders Hudson | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 17.5% | 11.3% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Will Neubauer | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 14.7% | 55.7% |
| Colin Suvak | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 5.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.