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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.33+4.24vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.15+1.36vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.56+1.68vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.55+3.63vs Predicted
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5SUNY Stony Brook0.90+4.44vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.34+5.04vs Predicted
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7Villanova University1.15+1.83vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.49-0.39vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-1.08vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.52-2.35vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.77-6.81vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.47-1.43vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.26+1.18vs Predicted
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14Hampton University2.26-8.62vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland-0.82-1.51vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo-1.70-1.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.24U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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3.36Georgetown University3.150.3%1st Place
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4.68U. S. Naval Academy2.560.1%1st Place
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7.63SUNY Maritime College1.550.0%1st Place
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9.44SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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11.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.340.0%1st Place
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8.83Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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7.61Queen's University1.490.0%1st Place
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7.92Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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7.65Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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4.19Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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10.57Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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14.18Syracuse University-1.260.0%1st Place
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5.38Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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13.49University of Maryland-0.820.0%1st Place
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14.8University of Buffalo-1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Hughes | 10.0% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Marshall | 25.7% | 17.6% | 16.8% | 13.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brittney Slook | 12.4% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andreas Adam | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Clark Spencer Ragsdale | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 18.1% | 15.1% | 7.5% | 1.8% |
| David Alldian | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Faurschou | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Julian Fraize | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Gabby Rizika | 16.8% | 15.6% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Houchois | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 17.1% | 14.0% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| Jacob Correia | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 16.7% | 31.5% | 29.9% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 9.8% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Hope | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 24.2% | 28.6% | 16.1% |
| John Porterfield | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 10.7% | 23.5% | 50.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.