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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.09+5.44vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.09+4.61vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College1.51+6.65vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.30+5.48vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.03+2.11vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.03+0.29vs Predicted
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7Harvard University1.87-0.18vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.59+0.42vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.00+1.51vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.88+1.31vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College1.14-1.30vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.28-6.43vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.40-0.18vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College1.00-3.09vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.62-6.76vs Predicted
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16Yale University1.19-6.35vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University-0.79-1.11vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont-0.62-2.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.44Roger Williams University2.099.6%1st Place
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6.61Boston College2.0910.1%1st Place
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9.65Bowdoin College1.514.1%1st Place
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9.48University of Rhode Island1.304.7%1st Place
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7.11Brown University2.038.1%1st Place
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6.29Yale University2.0310.0%1st Place
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6.82Harvard University1.878.9%1st Place
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8.42Tufts University1.595.9%1st Place
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10.51Northeastern University1.003.6%1st Place
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11.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.882.7%1st Place
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9.7Dartmouth College1.144.0%1st Place
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5.57Brown University2.2812.1%1st Place
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12.82Boston University0.401.1%1st Place
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10.91Connecticut College1.002.8%1st Place
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8.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.626.4%1st Place
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9.65Yale University1.194.9%1st Place
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15.89Salve Regina University-0.790.5%1st Place
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15.58University of Vermont-0.620.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Stokke | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kyra Phelan | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Martins Atilla | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Carly Kieding | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Posner | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gus Macaulay | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Charles Wilkinson | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% |
| Turner Ryon | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Noah Stapleton | 12.1% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Stewart | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 13.8% | 7.3% |
| William Hurd | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 2.5% |
| William Kulas | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Elle Sykes | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Sean Morrison | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 21.9% | 45.5% |
| Ryan Begin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 25.8% | 35.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.