← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Tufts University3.47+5.59vs Predicted
-
2Yale University3.13+5.93vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University2.42+7.77vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+3.58vs Predicted
-
5Boston College3.48+1.73vs Predicted
-
6Boston University3.42+0.73vs Predicted
-
7Roger Williams University2.49+3.50vs Predicted
-
8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-0.79vs Predicted
-
9Bowdoin College3.18-1.43vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont2.70-0.42vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University2.37-0.04vs Predicted
-
12Salve Regina University1.22+3.20vs Predicted
-
13University of Rhode Island2.19-1.56vs Predicted
-
14Dartmouth College2.87-5.00vs Predicted
-
15Fordham University2.60-5.09vs Predicted
-
16Brown University3.38-9.17vs Predicted
-
17Northeastern University2.39-6.17vs Predicted
-
18University of Michigan0.68-1.76vs Predicted
-
19University of Connecticut-1.14-0.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.59Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
-
7.93Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
-
10.77Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
-
7.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
-
6.73Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
-
6.73Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
-
10.5Roger Williams University2.490.0%1st Place
-
7.21Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
-
7.57Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
-
9.58University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
-
10.96Cornell University2.370.0%1st Place
-
15.2Salve Regina University1.220.0%1st Place
-
11.44University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
-
9.0Dartmouth College2.870.1%1st Place
-
9.91Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
-
6.83Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
-
10.83Northeastern University2.390.0%1st Place
-
16.24University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
-
18.41University of Connecticut-1.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Barbano | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Wagner | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Mack Fox | 7.9% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Harry Koeppel | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Polster | 10.6% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Kennedy | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Trevor Long | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack McGuire | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Luke Andersen | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| Bayard Lalor | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 10.1% | 24.8% | 26.4% | 5.6% |
| Patrick Penwell | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 0.3% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 5.8% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wehner | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 0.3% |
| Will Neubauer | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 8.1% | 17.2% | 39.8% | 12.6% |
| Daniel Ghajar | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 10.7% | 80.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.