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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.87+7.55vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.19+9.25vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.42+3.53vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College3.18+3.18vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.48+1.14vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.49+3.89vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.47-0.86vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-0.86vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University1.22+4.99vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.13-2.31vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.75-2.01vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-5.14vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.60-3.72vs Predicted
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14Brown University2.70-5.26vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut-2.28+2.84vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont2.70-6.78vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.37-6.53vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.68-2.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.55Dartmouth College2.870.1%1st Place
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11.25University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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6.53Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.18Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
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6.14Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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9.89Roger Williams University2.490.0%1st Place
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6.14Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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13.99Salve Regina University1.220.0%1st Place
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7.69Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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8.99Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.86Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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9.28Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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8.74Brown University2.700.1%1st Place
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17.84University of Connecticut-2.280.0%1st Place
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9.22University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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10.47Cornell University2.370.0%1st Place
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15.09University of Michigan0.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Johansson | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Penwell | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 4.9% | 0.2% |
| Hannah Polster | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack McGuire | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Harry Koeppel | 11.0% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| James Kennedy | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barbano | 10.0% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bayard Lalor | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 25.9% | 27.1% | 0.8% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nick Digiovanni | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Long | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Quinn Andersen | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Charles Zizza | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 94.4% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Luke Andersen | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 0.1% |
| Will Neubauer | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 18.0% | 48.9% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.