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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.22+1.27vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+0.80vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.49+2.44vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+2.19vs Predicted
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5Princeton University0.75+2.05vs Predicted
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6Villanova University1.37-0.40vs Predicted
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7Washington College1.52-1.77vs Predicted
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8Drexel University-0.16+1.25vs Predicted
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9Ocean County College0.28-0.67vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook0.90-3.24vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-1.050.00vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University-0.46-1.95vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-0.93-1.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.27U. S. Naval Academy3.220.4%1st Place
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2.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.3%1st Place
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5.44University of Pennsylvania1.490.1%1st Place
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6.19Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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7.05Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
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5.6Villanova University1.370.1%1st Place
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5.23Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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9.25Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
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8.33Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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6.76SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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11.0University of Delaware-1.050.0%1st Place
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10.05Monmouth University-0.460.0%1st Place
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11.04Rutgers University-0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Hogan | 37.8% | 28.1% | 16.3% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 26.3% | 25.9% | 18.6% | 13.1% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Garth | 5.6% | 7.0% | 13.4% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Bailey Cornog | 6.3% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 7.3% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Haley Clemson | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 15.2% | 17.1% | 16.5% | 8.1% |
| John Kirk | 1.9% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 15.6% | 8.3% | 3.2% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Cathleen Murphy | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 22.9% | 33.7% |
| Veronica Lane | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 21.6% | 16.7% |
| Michael Molman | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 22.4% | 35.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.