Race 3B

central-fall-qualifier

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Peter Hogan 37.4% 29.3% 16.7% 8.8% 4.8% 2.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Anne Sidamon-Eristoff 3.4% 3.6% 5.6% 7.1% 9.2% 11.8% 9.8% 12.6% 14.0% 11.7% 7.3% 2.7% 1.2%
Hannah Schmidt 6.4% 7.2% 11.4% 15.7% 13.7% 13.5% 11.1% 9.5% 6.5% 3.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Max Neubelt 25.0% 24.5% 20.2% 13.6% 8.6% 4.4% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Andrew O'Brien 5.2% 7.3% 7.8% 10.7% 10.6% 11.4% 13.1% 11.4% 10.6% 7.2% 2.9% 1.7% 0.1%
Caroline Garth 7.3% 8.2% 12.5% 13.2% 15.9% 10.5% 10.3% 8.5% 7.3% 3.9% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Bailey Cornog 7.1% 8.2% 10.4% 10.8% 12.0% 12.8% 14.0% 9.0% 7.5% 5.4% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Michael Molman 0.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 2.5% 2.9% 2.2% 3.8% 5.6% 9.1% 17.3% 23.6% 28.8%
Nicholas Manfredi 3.3% 5.7% 5.4% 8.2% 8.2% 12.0% 12.2% 14.3% 11.1% 10.0% 6.3% 2.6% 0.7%
John Kirk 2.0% 2.7% 4.1% 3.7% 6.8% 7.2% 9.3% 11.9% 12.7% 14.1% 13.2% 8.7% 3.6%
Veronica Lane 1.0% 0.9% 1.3% 2.8% 3.1% 4.2% 6.1% 6.2% 10.3% 14.5% 17.5% 18.9% 13.2%
Haley Clemson 0.9% 1.0% 2.7% 2.8% 3.9% 4.7% 6.9% 8.8% 10.0% 14.4% 17.3% 16.9% 9.7%
Walker Schwartz 0.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 2.6% 1.8% 3.0% 4.1% 6.6% 12.0% 24.0% 42.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.