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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.52+4.28vs Predicted
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2Villanova University1.37+3.67vs Predicted
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3Princeton University0.75+4.24vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+2.22vs Predicted
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5Ocean County College0.28+3.20vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.49-0.65vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.22-4.78vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-5.23vs Predicted
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9University of Delaware-1.05+2.04vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook0.90-3.25vs Predicted
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11Drexel University-0.16-1.83vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University-0.46-1.91vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-0.93-2.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.28Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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5.67Villanova University1.370.1%1st Place
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7.24Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
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6.22Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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8.2Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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5.35University of Pennsylvania1.490.1%1st Place
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2.22U. S. Naval Academy3.220.4%1st Place
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2.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.2%1st Place
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11.04University of Delaware-1.050.0%1st Place
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6.75SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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9.17Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
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10.09Monmouth University-0.460.0%1st Place
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11.0Rutgers University-0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Schmidt | 6.6% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Bailey Cornog | 6.3% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 3.1% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 4.0% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| John Kirk | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 15.4% | 14.5% | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| Caroline Garth | 5.6% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Peter Hogan | 39.7% | 26.4% | 17.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 24.3% | 27.2% | 20.3% | 14.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cathleen Murphy | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 23.5% | 36.7% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Haley Clemson | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 17.0% | 17.4% | 12.8% | 8.2% |
| Veronica Lane | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 18.0% | 22.2% | 16.5% |
| Michael Molman | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 25.0% | 32.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.