Race 4A

lake-virginia-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Shakespeare 13.6% 12.0% 12.7% 10.9% 10.5% 8.8% 9.5% 7.4% 5.7% 4.8% 2.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Cole Schweda 15.2% 13.1% 14.9% 13.6% 10.1% 9.0% 7.8% 5.9% 4.2% 2.6% 2.1% 1.1% 0.2%
Fiona Froelich 8.2% 7.5% 8.3% 7.6% 9.7% 8.8% 8.2% 8.6% 9.8% 9.2% 7.2% 5.2% 1.6%
Humberto Porrata 9.7% 11.2% 10.3% 8.8% 10.9% 8.1% 8.2% 9.0% 7.9% 6.8% 5.1% 2.9% 1.4%
Hilton Kamps 6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 7.0% 7.6% 8.2% 9.2% 9.6% 10.0% 9.0% 9.0% 7.3% 2.9%
Shay Bridge 6.5% 6.6% 5.9% 6.7% 7.3% 8.7% 8.3% 9.5% 9.1% 10.5% 9.2% 7.0% 4.5%
Mason Howell 2.6% 2.2% 2.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.8% 5.0% 5.3% 6.3% 9.3% 10.9% 17.8% 27.5%
Brendan Smucker 7.5% 7.3% 7.7% 8.3% 9.4% 8.0% 9.2% 8.1% 8.7% 8.4% 8.4% 6.3% 2.5%
Efe Guder 11.8% 12.2% 9.7% 11.7% 9.1% 11.3% 8.2% 8.6% 6.2% 4.3% 4.5% 2.2% 0.3%
Jackson McGeough 2.1% 2.0% 2.8% 2.5% 3.6% 3.9% 4.5% 5.0% 7.0% 7.3% 10.5% 17.2% 31.6%
Brent Penwarden 9.6% 9.8% 10.9% 10.1% 9.2% 10.3% 9.2% 8.8% 8.1% 6.9% 4.3% 1.9% 1.1%
Oliver West 2.6% 3.6% 3.5% 4.0% 3.7% 5.1% 6.2% 6.0% 7.6% 10.3% 13.4% 17.2% 16.6%
David Webb 4.2% 5.3% 4.0% 5.3% 5.7% 6.0% 6.6% 8.2% 9.4% 10.5% 12.6% 12.4% 9.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.