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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.26+4.35vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.85+4.64vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.20+2.58vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.83+6.35vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.97+1.22vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.51+2.08vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.34+1.65vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.96-1.77vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.78-2.82vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University2.21-2.01vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.42-0.20vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.89-2.87vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97-7.57vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.99-1.97vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont2.19-6.80vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire1.24-4.67vs Predicted
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18University of Connecticut-1.93-1.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.35Tufts University3.260.1%1st Place
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6.64Boston College2.850.1%1st Place
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5.58Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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10.35University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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6.22Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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8.08Boston University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.65Yale University2.340.1%1st Place
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6.23Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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7.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.780.1%1st Place
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8.99Salve Regina University2.210.0%1st Place
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11.8Northeastern University1.420.0%1st Place
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10.13Roger Williams University1.890.0%1st Place
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6.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.1%1st Place
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13.03Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.990.0%1st Place
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9.2University of Vermont2.190.0%1st Place
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12.33University of New Hampshire1.240.0%1st Place
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16.81University of Connecticut-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Tong | 13.7% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Henry Dumke | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 11.6% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Girard | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 0.8% |
| Christian Filter | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reed Lorimer | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Champa | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Jack McGraw | 9.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Duncan | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Sean Beaulieu | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Chris Colbeth | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 17.9% | 1.6% |
| Ed Lebens | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 0.5% |
| August Sturm | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Dawson | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 11.4% | 18.3% | 31.4% | 2.4% |
| Benjamin Craig | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Gershuny | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 16.9% | 21.1% | 1.7% |
| Tara Schwenzfeier | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 4.4% | 92.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.