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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.26+4.32vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.96+4.25vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.51+4.99vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.19+5.17vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97+1.21vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.34+1.74vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University2.21+1.06vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.83+1.22vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.89+0.32vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.20-5.47vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.42-0.22vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.99-0.08vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.85-7.10vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.97-8.53vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.78-9.00vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire1.24-4.67vs Predicted
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18University of Connecticut-1.93-1.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.32Tufts University3.260.1%1st Place
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6.25Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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7.99Boston University2.510.1%1st Place
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9.17University of Vermont2.190.0%1st Place
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6.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.1%1st Place
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8.74Yale University2.340.0%1st Place
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9.06Salve Regina University2.210.0%1st Place
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10.22University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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10.32Roger Williams University1.890.0%1st Place
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5.53Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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11.78Northeastern University1.420.0%1st Place
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12.92Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.990.0%1st Place
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6.9Boston College2.850.1%1st Place
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6.47Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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7.0Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.780.1%1st Place
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12.33University of New Hampshire1.240.0%1st Place
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16.81University of Connecticut-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Tong | 13.3% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack McGraw | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reed Lorimer | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Craig | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 0.2% |
| August Sturm | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Champa | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Sean Beaulieu | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Peter Girard | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 0.2% |
| Ed Lebens | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 11.6% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chris Colbeth | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 16.2% | 17.5% | 1.4% |
| Christopher Dawson | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 16.9% | 31.1% | 3.0% |
| Henry Dumke | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Christian Filter | 8.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Duncan | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Gershuny | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 18.4% | 20.1% | 1.5% |
| Tara Schwenzfeier | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 3.8% | 92.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.