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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.20+4.58vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.85+4.79vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97+3.47vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.42+8.02vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24+4.01vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.26-0.39vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.89+3.46vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.97-1.64vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.96-2.31vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.83+0.61vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.19-1.50vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.10-3.34vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.34-5.06vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University2.21-5.56vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.78-8.87vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire1.24-4.35vs Predicted
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18University of Connecticut-0.42-1.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.58Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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6.79Boston College2.850.1%1st Place
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6.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.1%1st Place
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12.02Northeastern University1.420.0%1st Place
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9.01Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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5.61Tufts University3.260.1%1st Place
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10.46Roger Williams University1.890.0%1st Place
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6.36Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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6.69Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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10.61University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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9.5University of Vermont2.190.0%1st Place
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9.66Boston University2.100.0%1st Place
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8.94Yale University2.340.0%1st Place
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9.44Salve Regina University2.210.0%1st Place
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7.13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.780.1%1st Place
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12.65University of New Hampshire1.240.0%1st Place
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16.07University of Connecticut-0.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 13.6% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Henry Dumke | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| August Sturm | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Chris Colbeth | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 11.6% | 15.9% | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Frank Reeg | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 1.1% |
| Alexander Tong | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ed Lebens | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 2.3% |
| Christian Filter | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack McGraw | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Peter Girard | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% |
| Benjamin Craig | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 1.3% |
| Michael Sabourin | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 1.8% |
| Christopher Champa | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Sean Beaulieu | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 0.8% |
| Stephen Duncan | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Gershuny | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 22.3% | 9.7% |
| Benjamin Hawkins | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 10.1% | 73.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.