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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.25+2.07vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.33+4.75vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.54+1.19vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-2.05vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.14+0.06vs Predicted
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6Queen's University1.85-0.38vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.65-0.99vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo0.75-0.10vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University0.55-0.74vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.94-3.52vs Predicted
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12Colgate University-1.41-0.85vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-0.89-3.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.07Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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6.75Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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4.19Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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1.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.5%1st Place
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5.06SUNY Maritime College2.140.1%1st Place
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5.62Queen's University1.850.1%1st Place
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6.01Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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7.9University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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8.26Syracuse University0.550.0%1st Place
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7.48University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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11.15Colgate University-1.410.0%1st Place
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10.58U. S. Military Academy-0.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alecsander Tayler | 19.0% | 24.2% | 22.3% | 15.4% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zane Tinnell | 2.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 15.6% | 15.0% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Connor Kelter | 10.0% | 14.2% | 17.1% | 15.1% | 16.6% | 13.1% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 47.5% | 27.7% | 13.3% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 6.0% | 8.4% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matti Muru | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 15.5% | 15.3% | 11.3% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Rory Mess | 1.3% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 17.6% | 19.1% | 11.0% | 2.2% |
| Zachary Warner | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 16.1% | 24.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 19.4% | 15.6% | 6.9% | 1.0% |
| Christian Langalis | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 22.3% | 61.5% |
| Jennifer Suter | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 10.6% | 40.7% | 32.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.