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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.25+2.03vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.54+2.27vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-1.04vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.85+1.67vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.14+0.07vs Predicted
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6Syracuse University0.55+2.35vs Predicted
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7University of Buffalo0.75+0.82vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.65-2.05vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester0.94-1.55vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.33-3.30vs Predicted
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12Colgate University-1.41-0.86vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-0.89-3.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.03Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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4.27Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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1.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.5%1st Place
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5.67Queen's University1.850.0%1st Place
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5.07SUNY Maritime College2.140.1%1st Place
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8.35Syracuse University0.550.0%1st Place
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7.82University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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5.95Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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7.45University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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6.7Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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11.14Colgate University-1.410.0%1st Place
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10.59U. S. Military Academy-0.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alecsander Tayler | 18.8% | 24.9% | 22.3% | 16.7% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 8.5% | 15.2% | 16.1% | 16.6% | 16.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 47.9% | 26.1% | 13.7% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matti Muru | 4.1% | 6.0% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 14.5% | 15.6% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| John Lawless | 6.5% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Warner | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 18.1% | 23.7% | 14.4% | 3.0% |
| Rory Mess | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 15.2% | 20.9% | 8.9% | 2.9% |
| Adam DeVita | 4.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 15.3% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 18.2% | 15.0% | 6.1% | 0.6% |
| Zane Tinnell | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
| Christian Langalis | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 22.8% | 60.5% |
| Jennifer Suter | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 10.8% | 41.1% | 32.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.