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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.70+3.32vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.71+2.21vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.16+2.72vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.39+1.15vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76+1.97vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.20-0.30vs Predicted
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7McGill University1.56+0.43vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.51-3.13vs Predicted
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9Wesleyan University0.55+1.27vs Predicted
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10Bates College-0.11+1.84vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.83-5.24vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College0.24-1.75vs Predicted
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14Amherst College0.89-4.44vs Predicted
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15Fairfield University-1.07-1.44vs Predicted
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16Sacred Heart University-0.43-3.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.32Brown University2.700.2%1st Place
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4.21Connecticut College2.710.2%1st Place
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5.72University of Rhode Island2.160.1%1st Place
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5.15Tufts University2.390.1%1st Place
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6.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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5.7Tufts University2.200.1%1st Place
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7.43McGill University1.560.1%1st Place
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4.87Boston University2.510.1%1st Place
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10.27Wesleyan University0.550.0%1st Place
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11.84Bates College-0.110.0%1st Place
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6.76University of Rhode Island1.830.1%1st Place
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11.25Middlebury College0.240.0%1st Place
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9.56Amherst College0.890.0%1st Place
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13.56Fairfield University-1.070.0%1st Place
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12.42Sacred Heart University-0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Andersen | 16.4% | 15.8% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Walter Florio | 16.0% | 16.8% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Rush | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 11.7% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caelan Juckniess | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Keller | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Renee Torrie | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Alex Moreno | 13.3% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Barton | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 16.1% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% |
| Ian Rashleigh McNally | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 18.4% | 22.0% | 13.9% |
| Kimberly Morecraft | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jade Forsberg | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 17.2% | 20.2% | 15.2% | 6.7% |
| Noah Brayer | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% |
| Isaac Bode | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% | 17.4% | 51.0% |
| David Tampellini | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 25.3% | 23.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.