Race 4B

salt-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Carter Pemberton 20.0% 17.9% 18.7% 13.6% 12.2% 8.2% 4.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Solomon Tarlin 7.3% 10.4% 11.5% 11.6% 12.4% 13.8% 11.3% 10.0% 7.3% 3.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Cameron Holley 31.0% 24.5% 14.8% 13.5% 8.0% 4.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Joe Menesale 4.6% 6.8% 6.8% 8.9% 12.3% 10.8% 12.9% 13.3% 11.2% 7.3% 4.2% 0.9%
Samuel Shea 12.0% 13.7% 14.3% 13.1% 11.6% 12.7% 8.3% 7.4% 4.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Hannah Ker 1.9% 1.9% 2.9% 3.7% 4.9% 5.9% 7.1% 8.0% 15.9% 20.3% 20.1% 7.4%
Benton Croop 3.0% 3.0% 3.9% 5.2% 6.9% 6.7% 9.2% 12.9% 14.5% 17.5% 12.6% 4.6%
Zachary Jordan 7.7% 7.7% 9.4% 10.4% 10.0% 10.6% 14.4% 13.1% 8.4% 5.0% 2.9% 0.4%
Christopher Pearson 6.7% 7.6% 10.9% 11.3% 12.2% 12.4% 13.1% 11.8% 7.4% 5.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Ben Arquit 4.3% 4.5% 4.8% 6.4% 6.5% 9.0% 10.1% 12.2% 16.5% 14.3% 9.2% 2.2%
Ross Richins 1.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.8% 3.8% 4.0% 5.3% 8.3% 15.8% 30.1% 26.1%
Camille Britton 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 2.6% 2.6% 4.3% 8.6% 18.2% 58.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.