Race 5A

south-tom-curtis

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Brendan Shanahan 19.4% 19.3% 23.2% 17.3% 11.2% 6.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley Adam 25.5% 24.7% 18.6% 15.3% 8.9% 5.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryan Bay 3.4% 5.5% 4.9% 9.7% 13.0% 16.4% 20.0% 15.0% 8.5% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Anders Hudson 2.5% 5.2% 5.3% 8.6% 17.0% 20.0% 16.8% 12.7% 8.2% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell D'Eliscu 20.9% 20.7% 18.8% 17.9% 11.4% 7.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Filip Stevanovic 2.1% 1.6% 3.3% 4.5% 8.1% 10.6% 16.1% 18.4% 19.0% 12.2% 3.6% 0.5% 0.0%
Bryan Bay 3.4% 5.5% 4.9% 9.7% 13.0% 16.4% 20.0% 15.0% 8.5% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Jeremy Herrin 22.4% 19.2% 19.5% 18.0% 12.3% 5.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Mazzeo 1.2% 1.6% 2.8% 3.8% 6.7% 10.9% 14.0% 17.4% 20.3% 14.1% 6.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Andrew Bobbitt 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.9% 6.3% 10.8% 15.8% 21.3% 18.5% 15.0% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Grace Wagner 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 1.2% 3.5% 3.4% 4.7% 6.1% 13.6% 24.8% 34.5% 6.9% 0.0%
Nathan Thompson 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3% 2.9% 3.5% 5.9% 9.5% 23.2% 39.8% 11.5% 0.0%
Charles Carpenter 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 1.8% 4.1% 10.8% 80.1% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.