Race 8A

south-tom-curtis

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Brendan Shanahan 20.4% 21.9% 18.8% 19.1% 11.9% 5.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jeremy Herrin 23.5% 20.9% 19.0% 16.6% 12.5% 5.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Bobbitt 2.0% 1.9% 2.6% 4.2% 5.5% 8.8% 15.4% 17.4% 21.2% 15.1% 5.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Roger Dorr 13.6% 15.0% 19.5% 17.1% 16.7% 10.8% 5.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryan Bay 3.8% 5.1% 4.2% 9.6% 16.1% 16.8% 18.5% 14.2% 8.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley Adam 26.1% 24.5% 20.8% 14.2% 8.6% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Mazzeo 1.9% 2.2% 2.5% 4.4% 5.9% 10.3% 14.9% 18.1% 19.1% 13.5% 6.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Anders Hudson 5.0% 5.4% 6.5% 9.0% 13.2% 19.7% 16.1% 13.7% 7.2% 3.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryan Bay 3.8% 5.1% 4.2% 9.6% 16.1% 16.8% 18.5% 14.2% 8.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathan Thompson 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 2.6% 5.0% 7.0% 12.0% 25.6% 36.7% 8.1% 0.0%
Filip Stevanovic 2.3% 1.9% 4.0% 4.4% 7.6% 13.3% 14.8% 17.9% 17.1% 12.0% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Grace Wagner 0.7% 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 1.4% 2.6% 4.6% 8.0% 12.3% 23.8% 35.1% 9.4% 0.0%
Charles Carpenter 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 1.5% 1.6% 3.9% 10.0% 81.3% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.