Race 11A

south-tom-curtis

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Brendan Shanahan 26.1% 23.1% 19.8% 14.9% 8.2% 5.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Tara 17.7% 21.1% 20.3% 15.7% 15.2% 6.6% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Roger Dorr 16.1% 15.3% 19.2% 21.8% 15.7% 7.9% 3.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jeremy Herrin 25.1% 24.2% 20.0% 18.1% 7.8% 3.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryan Bay 5.1% 6.5% 7.7% 9.1% 16.1% 22.8% 19.6% 10.4% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Anders Hudson 6.2% 5.3% 6.6% 10.8% 17.1% 22.3% 18.0% 10.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryan Bay 5.1% 6.5% 7.7% 9.1% 16.1% 22.8% 19.6% 10.4% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Andrew Bobbitt 1.7% 1.3% 2.7% 4.4% 8.1% 14.0% 22.8% 30.1% 13.7% 1.2% 0.0%
Patrick Mazzeo 1.5% 2.3% 3.3% 4.2% 8.6% 12.7% 21.5% 30.1% 14.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Charles Carpenter 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 1.3% 2.8% 10.6% 83.5% 0.0%
Nathan Thompson 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.9% 2.4% 4.3% 6.9% 14.8% 55.5% 13.8% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.