Race 1B

south-tom-curtis

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Dane Byerly 23.2% 23.4% 20.4% 15.8% 9.6% 4.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AJ Reiter 26.9% 22.4% 18.4% 14.0% 11.6% 5.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alexander Johnston 1.5% 2.1% 3.3% 3.5% 6.2% 8.5% 17.1% 31.9% 18.7% 6.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Luca Taglialegne 7.8% 10.6% 12.4% 14.8% 18.7% 18.0% 11.5% 5.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Sheerin 14.7% 15.6% 15.9% 18.5% 15.0% 11.9% 6.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Brady 2.7% 3.4% 4.7% 7.1% 9.0% 16.4% 24.3% 20.4% 9.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Jack Elkin 18.8% 16.5% 17.5% 17.7% 15.1% 9.5% 4.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samara Leith 3.1% 5.5% 6.2% 6.5% 11.4% 19.8% 23.1% 17.5% 5.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Brady 2.7% 3.4% 4.7% 7.1% 9.0% 16.4% 24.3% 20.4% 9.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Meghan Crawford 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 2.7% 5.8% 15.9% 27.2% 30.2% 15.6% 0.0%
John Monday 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 2.1% 2.7% 3.2% 8.5% 21.2% 28.3% 24.1% 8.8% 0.0%
Danyte Reisinger 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 1.6% 3.1% 6.1% 22.2% 25.4% 26.0% 12.9% 0.0%
August Williams 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 5.3% 9.7% 18.3% 62.5% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.