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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.61+5.83vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.94+7.34vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.58vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.76+5.72vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.52+1.92vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.35+1.58vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.41+0.32vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+0.04vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island3.84-3.22vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-3.75vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.73-0.94vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College2.82-2.03vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin2.08-0.97vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.15-5.89vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.44-0.93vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.80-0.43vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.80-7.15vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-1.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.83Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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9.34Roger Williams University2.940.0%1st Place
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6.58U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.72College of Charleston2.760.0%1st Place
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6.92Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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7.58Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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7.32George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.04St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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5.78University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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6.25Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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10.06Old Dominion University2.730.0%1st Place
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9.97Eckerd College2.820.0%1st Place
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12.03University of Wisconsin2.080.0%1st Place
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8.11Stanford University3.150.1%1st Place
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14.07SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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15.57Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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9.85University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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16.99SUNY Stony Brook-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lalumiere | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Gemperline | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Snow | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Muller | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 0.1% |
| Will Holz | 8.5% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Allyson Donahue | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Tara | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Rachel Bryer | 11.4% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ty Ingram | 11.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Schoene | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Charles Bocklet | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 16.2% | 14.7% | 8.2% | 2.2% |
| William Marshall | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Molesky | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 23.9% | 22.6% | 6.4% |
| William Sunkler | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 15.2% | 38.1% | 20.8% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Peter Sander | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 16.3% | 68.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.