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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.61+6.04vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+4.45vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.76vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.84+1.91vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.94+4.29vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.80+4.03vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.76+3.09vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+0.31vs Predicted
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9George Washington University3.41-1.52vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.15-1.18vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.08+1.65vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College2.82-1.82vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.35-5.37vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.69-3.94vs Predicted
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15Fordham University3.52-7.91vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.73-5.67vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.28+0.24vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.80-2.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.04Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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6.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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6.76U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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5.91University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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9.29Roger Williams University2.940.0%1st Place
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10.03University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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10.09College of Charleston2.760.0%1st Place
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8.31St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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7.48George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.82Stanford University3.150.1%1st Place
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12.65University of Wisconsin2.080.0%1st Place
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10.18Eckerd College2.820.0%1st Place
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7.63Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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10.06SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
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7.09Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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10.33Old Dominion University2.730.0%1st Place
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17.24SUNY Stony Brook-0.280.0%1st Place
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15.62Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lalumiere | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ty Ingram | 7.6% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Bryer | 12.3% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Gemperline | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| Nicolas Muller | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Tara | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Marshall | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Charles Bocklet | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 19.2% | 13.4% | 2.9% |
| Andrew Schoene | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| Allyson Donahue | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Comerford | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Will Holz | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 0.6% |
| Peter Sander | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 15.3% | 73.3% |
| William Sunkler | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 10.1% | 45.9% | 20.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.