← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Dartmouth College3.61+6.03vs Predicted
-
2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+4.36vs Predicted
-
3University of Rhode Island3.84+3.16vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+2.52vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University3.41+2.58vs Predicted
-
6SUNY Maritime College2.69+4.40vs Predicted
-
7University of Wisconsin2.08+5.55vs Predicted
-
8Stanford University3.15+0.46vs Predicted
-
9College of Charleston2.76+1.12vs Predicted
-
10University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.24vs Predicted
-
11Old Dominion University2.73-0.69vs Predicted
-
12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-3.34vs Predicted
-
13Washington College0.80+2.61vs Predicted
-
14Boston College3.35-6.53vs Predicted
-
15Fordham University3.52-7.94vs Predicted
-
16Eckerd College2.82-6.11vs Predicted
-
17Roger Williams University2.94-7.52vs Predicted
-
18SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-0.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.03Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
-
6.36Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
-
6.16University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
-
6.52U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
7.58George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
-
10.4SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
-
12.55University of Wisconsin2.080.0%1st Place
-
8.46Stanford University3.150.1%1st Place
-
10.12College of Charleston2.760.0%1st Place
-
10.24University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
-
10.31Old Dominion University2.730.0%1st Place
-
8.66St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
-
15.61Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
-
7.47Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
-
7.06Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
-
9.89Eckerd College2.820.0%1st Place
-
9.48Roger Williams University2.940.0%1st Place
-
17.09SUNY Stony Brook-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lalumiere | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Bryer | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Kyle Comerford | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 0.5% |
| Charles Bocklet | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 20.9% | 13.2% | 2.7% |
| William Marshall | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Muller | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 0.4% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Tara | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| William Sunkler | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 11.5% | 42.9% | 22.0% |
| Allyson Donahue | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 8.3% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Schoene | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Michael Gemperline | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Peter Sander | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 15.1% | 72.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.