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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.81vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.63+3.52vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.09+4.45vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.35+2.27vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College2.72+3.60vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.71+2.74vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.05+4.12vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.38-1.85vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93-1.15vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.82-1.41vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.62-1.83vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.09-4.39vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.95-1.60vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.55-4.91vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.32-4.83vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.58-3.12vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.23-0.48vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.85-0.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.81St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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5.52U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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7.45College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
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6.27Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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8.6Eckerd College2.720.1%1st Place
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8.74Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
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11.12SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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6.15Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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7.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.1%1st Place
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8.59Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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9.17Roger Williams University2.620.0%1st Place
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7.61University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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11.4University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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9.09Stanford University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.17George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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12.88University of Wisconsin1.580.0%1st Place
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16.52SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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17.06Washington College-0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 11.2% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paris Henken | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wade Waddell | 10.3% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Matt Cappetta | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 3.0% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| Robert Floyd | 9.6% | 12.9% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| A. Tucker Atterbury | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Dakota Northrup | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Gallagher | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 4.8% | 0.9% |
| Martina Sly | 5.4% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Noah Janssen | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 24.0% | 10.5% | 1.6% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 44.5% | 34.9% |
| Morgan Farber | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 26.2% | 61.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.