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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.62+8.35vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.38+4.48vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College2.72+5.97vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.63+1.37vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+1.61vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.09+1.35vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.35-0.62vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.55+1.27vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.09-1.71vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.82-1.37vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93-2.92vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.23+4.64vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.22-2.50vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.32-4.02vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin1.58-2.18vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.71-7.15vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.05-5.64vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.85-0.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.35Roger Williams University2.620.0%1st Place
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6.48Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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8.97Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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5.37U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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6.61St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.35University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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6.38Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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9.27Stanford University2.550.0%1st Place
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7.29College of Charleston3.090.1%1st Place
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8.63Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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8.08Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.1%1st Place
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16.64SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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10.5University of Pennsylvania2.220.0%1st Place
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9.98George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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12.82University of Wisconsin1.580.0%1st Place
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8.85Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
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11.36SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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17.05Washington College-0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tucker Atterbury | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Robert Floyd | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 13.4% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.0% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dakota Northrup | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Wade Waddell | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Martina Sly | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Paris Henken | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 6.9% | 45.1% | 36.7% |
| Carolyn Kearney | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 0.3% |
| Wade Wagner | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Noah Janssen | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 25.8% | 9.5% | 1.7% |
| Matt Cappetta | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 3.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Morgan Farber | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 28.3% | 59.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.