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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Lake Forest College3.06+0.73vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin1.46+1.97vs Predicted
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4Northwestern University1.24+0.20vs Predicted
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5Marquette University1.11-0.71vs Predicted
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6University of Illinois0.16-0.05vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan1.44-3.17vs Predicted
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8Western Michigan University-0.43-0.96vs Predicted
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9University of Chicago-1.05-1.19vs Predicted
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10University of Minnesota0.08-3.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.73Lake Forest College3.060.6%1st Place
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3.97University of Wisconsin1.460.1%1st Place
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4.2Northwestern University1.240.1%1st Place
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4.29Marquette University1.110.1%1st Place
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5.95University of Illinois0.160.0%1st Place
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3.83University of Michigan1.440.1%1st Place
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7.04Western Michigan University-0.430.0%1st Place
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7.81University of Chicago-1.050.0%1st Place
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6.18University of Minnesota0.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander O'Grady | 55.9% | 25.5% | 11.1% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Korbin Kierstead | 8.4% | 16.5% | 19.0% | 17.8% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Noah Rosenthal | 7.8% | 15.0% | 16.7% | 17.1% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Clulo | 8.2% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 16.5% | 18.7% | 13.8% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Jacob Dannhausen-Brun | 3.3% | 4.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 20.1% | 18.1% | 9.7% |
| Colton Gerber | 10.8% | 15.4% | 19.5% | 18.5% | 17.1% | 10.8% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Austin Lee | 1.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 31.0% | 23.4% |
| Stephane Vinet | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 11.2% | 18.1% | 53.6% |
| Michael Valverde | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 16.2% | 20.2% | 21.9% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.