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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin1.46+2.85vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University1.24+2.31vs Predicted
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3Lake Forest College3.06-1.28vs Predicted
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4University of Illinois0.16+1.96vs Predicted
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6University of Chicago-1.05+1.73vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan1.44-3.21vs Predicted
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8Western Michigan University-0.43-0.97vs Predicted
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9Marquette University1.11-4.56vs Predicted
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10University of Minnesota0.08-3.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.85University of Wisconsin1.460.1%1st Place
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4.31Northwestern University1.240.1%1st Place
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1.72Lake Forest College3.060.6%1st Place
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5.96University of Illinois0.160.0%1st Place
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7.73University of Chicago-1.050.0%1st Place
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3.79University of Michigan1.440.1%1st Place
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7.03Western Michigan University-0.430.0%1st Place
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4.44Marquette University1.110.1%1st Place
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6.18University of Minnesota0.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korbin Kierstead | 11.1% | 15.9% | 17.7% | 20.2% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Noah Rosenthal | 7.0% | 13.6% | 15.9% | 17.3% | 18.6% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 0.7% |
| Alexander O'Grady | 55.2% | 26.7% | 11.1% | 5.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Dannhausen-Brun | 2.9% | 4.5% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 16.8% | 20.1% | 17.4% | 9.7% |
| Stephane Vinet | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 18.1% | 50.9% |
| Colton Gerber | 9.4% | 19.2% | 18.4% | 18.8% | 16.0% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Austin Lee | 1.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 17.1% | 29.3% | 24.6% |
| Ryan Clulo | 8.3% | 10.9% | 17.6% | 15.4% | 15.1% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 5.9% | 1.6% |
| Michael Valverde | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 12.3% | 17.4% | 18.7% | 20.3% | 11.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.