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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hope College0.28+2.99vs Predicted
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2Grand Valley State University1.06+0.53vs Predicted
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3Michigan Technological University0.01+1.63vs Predicted
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4Northern Michigan University-1.19+3.24vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University-0.52+0.64vs Predicted
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6Michigan State University-0.97+0.67vs Predicted
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7Grand Valley State University-1.32+0.16vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan0.11-3.82vs Predicted
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9Hope College-2.27+0.11vs Predicted
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10Western Michigan University-0.43-4.70vs Predicted
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11Ohio State University-2.64-1.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.99Hope College0.280.1%1st Place
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2.53Grand Valley State University1.060.3%1st Place
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4.63Michigan Technological University0.010.1%1st Place
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7.24Northern Michigan University-1.190.0%1st Place
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5.64Northwestern University-0.520.1%1st Place
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6.67Michigan State University-0.970.0%1st Place
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7.16Grand Valley State University-1.320.0%1st Place
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4.18University of Michigan0.110.1%1st Place
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9.11Hope College-2.270.0%1st Place
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5.3Western Michigan University-0.430.1%1st Place
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9.56Ohio State University-2.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libby Reeg | 13.7% | 15.7% | 16.6% | 15.0% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Elliot Lee | 34.0% | 25.5% | 15.9% | 11.9% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Henley | 10.6% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Diamond | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 13.0% | 16.8% | 19.3% | 13.9% | 5.3% |
| Zachary Li | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 0.6% |
| Christian McAlvey | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 14.5% | 14.9% | 10.7% | 4.5% |
| Kate Cavataio | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 6.8% |
| Hannah Thayer | 13.9% | 13.4% | 16.3% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Justin Edick | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 13.9% | 25.5% | 34.7% |
| Austin Lee | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Patrick Burns | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 22.9% | 46.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.