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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+4.82vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.82+4.97vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.72+1.22vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.35+1.36vs Predicted
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5Boston University2.91+1.90vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.75+1.32vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University1.39+4.56vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.87-1.06vs Predicted
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9McGill University1.80+1.53vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.90+0.23vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.80-3.79vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.42-0.15vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.19-3.57vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.49-5.82vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.70-7.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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6.97Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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4.22Yale University3.720.2%1st Place
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5.36Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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6.9Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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7.32Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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11.56Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
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6.94Dartmouth College2.870.1%1st Place
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10.53McGill University1.800.0%1st Place
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10.23Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.900.0%1st Place
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7.21Bowdoin College2.800.1%1st Place
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11.85Northeastern University1.420.0%1st Place
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9.43University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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8.18Roger Williams University2.490.1%1st Place
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7.46University of Vermont2.700.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Fox | 11.1% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Jack Bitney | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Joseph Kiss | 18.5% | 14.8% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Wade Waddell | 12.5% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Josh Dochoda | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Taylor Ladd | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Jennifer Killian | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 16.2% | 27.7% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| Julien Brunet | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 14.3% |
| Jeffrey Adam | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 11.8% |
| Matthew Lyons | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Chris Colbeth | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 17.0% | 29.6% |
| Patrick Penwell | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 6.4% |
| James Kennedy | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.