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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston4.00+7.90vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College4.06+6.70vs Predicted
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3Harvard University4.52+3.76vs Predicted
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4Tufts University4.08+4.58vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.66+5.72vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.62+4.53vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+2.92vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island3.62+2.91vs Predicted
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9Boston University4.07-0.61vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.04+3.07vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.89-1.65vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.40+0.08vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.66-2.81vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-7.66vs Predicted
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15Boston College3.88-5.65vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.50-4.97vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University3.92-7.74vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College2.78-3.90vs Predicted
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19Bowdoin College3.25-7.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.9College of Charleston4.000.1%1st Place
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8.7Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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6.76Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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8.58Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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10.72Connecticut College3.660.0%1st Place
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10.53University of Vermont3.620.1%1st Place
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9.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.1%1st Place
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10.91University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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8.39Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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13.07Roger Williams University3.040.0%1st Place
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9.35Yale University3.890.0%1st Place
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12.08Brown University3.400.0%1st Place
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10.19U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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6.34U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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9.35Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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11.03Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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9.26Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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14.1Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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11.85Bowdoin College3.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Stokes | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Sam Williams | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Alan Palmer | 11.6% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| William Haeger | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Michael Marshall | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.1% |
| Coleman Bowen | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% |
| Sam Padnos | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% |
| Matthew Carmody | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% |
| Ben Greenfield | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Tucker Blagden | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 15.3% |
| Cam Cullman | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.3% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% |
| Samuel Ingham | 10.8% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Alex Cook | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% |
| Nick Dugdale | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Robert Savoie | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 24.2% |
| D.J. Hatch | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.