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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont3.62+9.66vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston4.00+6.99vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.66+7.58vs Predicted
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4Harvard University4.52+2.64vs Predicted
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5Boston University4.07+3.80vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.50+5.08vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College4.06+1.74vs Predicted
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8Tufts University4.08+0.81vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-2.85vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island3.62+0.51vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.89-1.72vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.40-0.04vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.66-3.78vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University3.92-5.55vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University3.04-3.09vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College2.78-2.84vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79-8.11vs Predicted
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19Bowdoin College3.25-6.84vs Predicted
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20Boston College3.88-10.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.66University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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8.99College of Charleston4.000.1%1st Place
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10.58Connecticut College3.660.0%1st Place
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6.64Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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8.8Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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11.08Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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8.74Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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8.81Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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10.51University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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9.28Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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11.96Brown University3.400.0%1st Place
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10.22U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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9.45Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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12.91Roger Williams University3.040.0%1st Place
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14.16Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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9.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.0%1st Place
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12.16Bowdoin College3.250.0%1st Place
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9.01Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coleman Bowen | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.6% |
| Samuel Stokes | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Michael Marshall | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% |
| Alan Palmer | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ben Greenfield | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Nick Dugdale | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Sam Williams | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| William Haeger | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| Samuel Ingham | 12.6% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Carmody | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% |
| Cam Cullman | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Tucker Blagden | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 17.6% |
| Robert Savoie | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 23.5% |
| Sam Padnos | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 2.2% |
| D.J. Hatch | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 11.2% |
| Alex Cook | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.