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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.82+2.81vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.20+3.12vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.11+0.18vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.05+1.65vs Predicted
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5Columbia University1.65+1.79vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.60-1.68vs Predicted
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7Princeton University0.75+1.74vs Predicted
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8Washington College1.52-1.06vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University0.64+0.35vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81-3.64vs Predicted
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11Amherst College0.89-2.28vs Predicted
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12Sacred Heart University-0.43-0.46vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-1.88vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-1.95-0.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.81Yale University2.820.2%1st Place
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5.12Tufts University2.200.1%1st Place
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3.18Georgetown University3.110.3%1st Place
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5.65University of Vermont2.050.1%1st Place
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6.79Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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4.32Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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8.74Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
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6.94Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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9.35Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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6.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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8.72Amherst College0.890.0%1st Place
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11.54Sacred Heart University-0.430.0%1st Place
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11.12SUNY Stony Brook-0.280.0%1st Place
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13.35U. S. Military Academy-1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan DiMarchi | 18.2% | 18.4% | 15.8% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Keller | 9.9% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Gerli | 25.7% | 21.0% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Richards | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Brad Seferian | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 17.1% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Vincens | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 17.7% | 15.9% | 7.9% | 2.2% |
| Vincent Storino | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Noah Brayer | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 15.6% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 0.7% |
| David Tampellini | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 20.9% | 33.5% | 12.9% |
| Peter Sander | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 20.7% | 29.8% | 9.3% |
| Jesse Whipple | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 14.6% | 73.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.