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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.20+4.25vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.60+2.14vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.11+0.20vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.82-0.16vs Predicted
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5Princeton University0.75+4.06vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.05-0.31vs Predicted
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7Fairfield University0.64+2.03vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.65-1.34vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81-2.69vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.52-2.87vs Predicted
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11Amherst College0.89-2.28vs Predicted
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12Sacred Heart University-0.43-0.48vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-1.90vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-1.95-0.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.25Tufts University2.200.1%1st Place
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4.14Fordham University2.600.2%1st Place
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3.2Georgetown University3.110.2%1st Place
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3.84Yale University2.820.2%1st Place
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9.06Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
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5.69University of Vermont2.050.1%1st Place
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9.03Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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6.66Columbia University1.650.1%1st Place
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6.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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7.13Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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8.72Amherst College0.890.0%1st Place
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11.52Sacred Heart University-0.430.0%1st Place
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11.1SUNY Stony Brook-0.280.0%1st Place
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13.36U. S. Military Academy-1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Keller | 8.9% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 15.1% | 15.4% | 16.5% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Gerli | 24.2% | 21.3% | 17.4% | 12.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan DiMarchi | 17.4% | 18.0% | 13.7% | 15.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 14.4% | 7.5% | 1.6% |
| Colin Richards | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Vincens | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 17.0% | 14.9% | 7.1% | 1.8% |
| Adam DeVita | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Vincent Storino | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 14.4% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Noah Brayer | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 15.7% | 15.6% | 11.0% | 5.9% | 0.8% |
| David Tampellini | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 21.8% | 32.4% | 13.0% |
| Peter Sander | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 12.8% | 20.6% | 29.4% | 9.7% |
| Jesse Whipple | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 5.2% | 15.1% | 72.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.