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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.20+4.24vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.11+1.16vs Predicted
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3Princeton University0.75+5.87vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81+2.28vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.82-1.04vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.60-1.64vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.05-1.57vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.65-1.39vs Predicted
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9Amherst College0.89-0.27vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.52-2.92vs Predicted
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11Fairfield University0.64-1.71vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-0.76vs Predicted
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13Sacred Heart University-0.43-1.59vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-1.95-0.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.24Tufts University2.200.1%1st Place
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3.16Georgetown University3.110.3%1st Place
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8.87Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
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6.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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3.96Yale University2.820.2%1st Place
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4.36Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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5.43University of Vermont2.050.1%1st Place
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6.61Columbia University1.650.1%1st Place
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8.73Amherst College0.890.0%1st Place
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7.08Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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9.29Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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11.24SUNY Stony Brook-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.41Sacred Heart University-0.430.0%1st Place
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13.35U. S. Military Academy-1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Keller | 9.0% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Gerli | 25.4% | 21.2% | 15.7% | 15.1% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 15.6% | 16.3% | 14.1% | 6.4% | 1.3% |
| Vincent Storino | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Dylan DiMarchi | 16.2% | 16.6% | 16.3% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 14.2% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Richards | 8.9% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Noah Brayer | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 5.8% | 1.1% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Lillian Vincens | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 18.1% | 14.9% | 9.7% | 1.4% |
| Peter Sander | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 12.6% | 22.1% | 29.6% | 9.9% |
| David Tampellini | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 20.9% | 31.9% | 13.2% |
| Jesse Whipple | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 14.4% | 72.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.