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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.20+4.26vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.60+2.14vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.82+0.81vs Predicted
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4Princeton University0.75+4.98vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.11-1.65vs Predicted
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6Amherst College0.89+2.75vs Predicted
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7Washington College1.52-0.20vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.65-1.41vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University0.64+0.28vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81-3.65vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.05-5.31vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-0.75vs Predicted
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13Sacred Heart University-0.43-1.61vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-1.95-0.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.26Tufts University2.200.1%1st Place
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4.14Fordham University2.600.2%1st Place
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3.81Yale University2.820.2%1st Place
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8.98Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
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3.35Georgetown University3.110.2%1st Place
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8.75Amherst College0.890.0%1st Place
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6.8Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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6.59Columbia University1.650.1%1st Place
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9.28Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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6.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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5.69University of Vermont2.050.1%1st Place
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11.25SUNY Stony Brook-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.39Sacred Heart University-0.430.0%1st Place
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13.35U. S. Military Academy-1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Keller | 9.4% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 16.8% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan DiMarchi | 18.4% | 17.9% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 16.1% | 14.2% | 7.4% | 1.2% |
| Jack Gerli | 20.0% | 22.5% | 17.0% | 13.7% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Brayer | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 5.5% | 0.8% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Adam DeVita | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Vincens | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 15.7% | 18.0% | 14.5% | 8.3% | 1.8% |
| Vincent Storino | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Colin Richards | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Sander | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 22.6% | 29.7% | 9.8% |
| David Tampellini | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 12.3% | 18.6% | 32.1% | 13.1% |
| Jesse Whipple | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 14.1% | 73.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.