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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81+4.93vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.11+1.04vs Predicted
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3Amherst College0.89+5.28vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.82-0.30vs Predicted
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5Princeton University0.75+3.82vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.60-1.75vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.20-2.08vs Predicted
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8Fairfield University0.64+0.81vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.52-2.20vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.47-0.58vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.05-5.54vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-0.94vs Predicted
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13Sacred Heart University-0.43-1.79vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-1.95-0.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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3.04Georgetown University3.110.3%1st Place
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8.28Amherst College0.890.0%1st Place
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3.7Yale University2.820.2%1st Place
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8.82Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
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4.25Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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4.92Tufts University2.200.1%1st Place
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8.81Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
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6.8Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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9.42Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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5.46University of Vermont2.050.1%1st Place
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11.06SUNY Stony Brook-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.21Sacred Heart University-0.430.0%1st Place
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13.3U. S. Military Academy-1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Storino | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Gerli | 26.3% | 20.9% | 18.1% | 13.4% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Brayer | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 15.0% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| Dylan DiMarchi | 16.9% | 19.7% | 16.0% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 6.4% | 1.6% |
| Brad Seferian | 13.6% | 15.1% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Keller | 11.2% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Vincens | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 1.6% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Houchois | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 17.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% |
| Colin Richards | 8.7% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Sander | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 18.7% | 27.1% | 9.8% |
| David Tampellini | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 18.5% | 28.5% | 12.8% |
| Jesse Whipple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 15.0% | 70.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.