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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
5.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.66+9.26vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.62+8.45vs Predicted
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3Harvard University4.52+3.69vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+2.10vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.50+6.31vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.87+7.46vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College2.78+7.03vs Predicted
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8Tufts University4.08+0.69vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.89+0.07vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University3.92-2.03vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College3.25+0.18vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.66-2.32vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University3.04-1.27vs Predicted
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15Boston College3.88-5.62vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.40-4.74vs Predicted
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17Boston University4.07-8.66vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79-8.27vs Predicted
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19College of Charleston4.00-10.38vs Predicted
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20Dartmouth College4.06-11.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.26U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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10.45University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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6.69Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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6.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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11.31Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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13.46University of Rhode Island2.870.0%1st Place
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14.03Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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8.69Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.07Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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8.97Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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12.18Bowdoin College3.250.0%1st Place
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10.68Connecticut College3.660.0%1st Place
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12.73Roger Williams University3.040.0%1st Place
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9.38Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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11.26Brown University3.400.0%1st Place
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8.34Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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9.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.0%1st Place
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8.62College of Charleston4.000.1%1st Place
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8.06Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Carminati | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% |
| Coleman Bowen | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% |
| Alan Palmer | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Ingham | 11.4% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nick Dugdale | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% |
| Ryan Hughes | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 21.4% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 14.8% | 22.1% |
| William Haeger | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| Cam Cullman | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| D.J. Hatch | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.6% |
| Michael Marshall | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| Tucker Blagden | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 13.4% |
| Alex Cook | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% |
| Ben Greenfield | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Sam Padnos | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.0% |
| Samuel Stokes | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Sam Williams | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.